Definition: Projected fair weight is the weight you expect on show day if today’s average daily gain continues. It is the bridge between this week’s scale reading and class eligibility.
Formula: projected weight = current weight + (ADG × days until show).
Worked example: Current 180 lb, ADG 1.8 lb/day, 45 days to fair → 180 + (1.8 × 45) = 261 lb. If your class max is 280 and target is 265, you are close — keep logging weekly.
How to use the projection
- Below class minimum → review energy density, health, water, and heat stress with your leader.
- Racing past maximum → adjust early; crash dieting late often shows in the carcass and disposition.
- Recompute after every weigh-in — one good week does not define the season.
Run the free fair weight projector and the ADG calculator, then save the animal in ShowPen so projections update automatically. Related: what is ADG and on track vs behind.
Next step: Start a free ShowPen project and log two weigh-ins to lock the habit.